reorder

DeVonta Smith Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles

DeVonta Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+180/-215).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -215 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -215.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With an exceptional 21.1% Red Zone Target Rate (86th percentile) this year, DeVonta Smith has been among the WRs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in the NFL.

DeVonta Smith has put up significantly more air yards this year (88.0 per game) than he did last year (66.0 per game).

DeVonta Smith's 64.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 90th percentile for WRs.

The Eagles O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

This year, the shaky Washington Commanders pass defense has yielded a monstrous 68.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 4th-largest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is suggested by the Eagles being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.

The projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

At the present time, the most run-focused team in the NFL near the goal line (53.8% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Philadelphia Eagles.

Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.32 seconds per play.

DeVonta Smith's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 80.8% to 69.1%.

More DeVonta Smith Player Props

DeVonta Smith TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 16

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles

DeVonta Smith Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16