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DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
DeVonta Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+200/-230).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -230.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are expected by the projections to run 66.3 total plays in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • DeVonta Smith has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 21.2% this year, which ranks him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
  • After accumulating 66.0 air yards per game last season, DeVonta Smith has made big progress this season, now pacing 90.0 per game.
  • DeVonta Smith's 68.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 94th percentile for wide receivers.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest clip in the league versus the Chicago Bears defense this year (75.6% Adjusted Completion%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme running game script is suggested by the Eagles being a massive 7-point favorite this week.
  • The model projects the Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 52.3% red zone run rate.
  • The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Eagles this year (a measly 54.3 per game on average).
  • The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

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