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DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
DeVonta Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -198 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -210.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
  • The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (37.4 per game) this year.
  • With a top-tier 21.4% Red Zone Target Share (85th percentile) this year, DeVonta Smith ranks as one of the wideouts with the biggest workloads near the end zone in the league.
  • DeVonta Smith has accumulated significantly more air yards this season (85.0 per game) than he did last season (66.0 per game).
  • DeVonta Smith rates in the 94th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) with a monstrous 66.2 figure this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Eagles are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
  • The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 4th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 52.6% red zone run rate.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see only 126.1 total plays run: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • The 9th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a lowly 54.3 per game on average).

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