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DeVonta Smith Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Philadelphia Eagles vs Detroit Lions

DeVonta Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+172/-194).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -180 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -194.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

DeVonta Smith has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 24.0% this year, which puts him in the 91st percentile among WRs.

After accruing 66.0 air yards per game last season, DeVonta Smith has seen a big uptick this season, now pacing 84.0 per game.

DeVonta Smith's 69.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in football: 95th percentile for wideouts.

DeVonta Smith grades out in the 78th percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an outstanding 0.33 per game.

This year, the porous Lions defense has yielded a whopping 1.44 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers: the 2nd-worst rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Eagles as the 4th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-centric team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 52.5% red zone run rate.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have only 126.8 offensive plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.

The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.9 plays per game.

Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with worse passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased rush volume.

More DeVonta Smith Player Props

DeVonta Smith TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 11

Philadelphia Eagles vs Detroit Lions

DeVonta Smith Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11