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DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams

DeVonta Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+116/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +111 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +116.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Philadelphia Eagles feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The projections expect the Eagles to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Eagles have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.5 plays per game.

With a remarkable 5.0 adjusted catches per game (86th percentile) since the start of last season, DeVonta Smith rates among the leading WRs in the league in the league.

DeVonta Smith rates as one of the best possession receivers in the league, completing an impressive 80.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 49.8% of their chances: the lowest clip among all teams this week.

While DeVonta Smith has received 27.1% of his team's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be a less important option in Philadelphia's passing offense in this contest at 22.0%.

Since the start of last season, the daunting Rams defense has allowed a paltry 60.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 2nd-smallest rate in football.

The Rams cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-best unit in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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