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DeVonta Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles

DeVonta Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+150/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -180.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Eagles are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.

With an elite 98.2% Route Participation Rate (100th percentile) this year, DeVonta Smith stands among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the league.

In this game, DeVonta Smith is predicted by the predictive model to rank in the 79th percentile among WRs with 6.9 targets.

As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 9th-best in football this year.

DeVonta Smith rates as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 4.5 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 52.5% of their plays: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 54.9 plays per game.

Opposing offenses have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

DeVonta Smith's 69.3% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a substantial drop-off in his receiving prowess over last year's 80.8% mark.

More DeVonta Smith Player Props

DeVonta Smith ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles

DeVonta Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 17