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DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
DeVonta Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -108.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are expected by the projections to run 65.3 total plays in this contest: the 10th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • With an impressive 98.3% Route Participation Rate (100th percentile) this year, DeVonta Smith ranks among the WRs with the highest volume in the league.
  • Our trusted projections expect DeVonta Smith to earn 7.0 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
  • DeVonta Smith grades out as one of the top pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging an outstanding 4.9 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.
  • As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Chicago's group of CBs has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme running game script is suggested by the Eagles being a massive 7-point favorite this week.
  • The model projects the Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The 7th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Eagles this year (a measly 49.4 per game on average).
  • Opposing teams have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Bears defense this year: 9th-fewest in the league.
  • DeVonta Smith's 72.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects a noteworthy reduction in his pass-catching ability over last year's 80.8% rate.

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