My Account Log Out
 
 
DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Philadelphia Eagles vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
DeVonta Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -160.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a high 98.1% Route% (100th percentile) this year, DeVonta Smith ranks as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
  • Our trusted projections expect DeVonta Smith to earn 7.4 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among wideouts.
  • With an impressive 5.3 adjusted catches per game (95th percentile) this year, DeVonta Smith has been as one of the leading wide receivers in the NFL in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Eagles as the 4th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have only 126.8 offensive plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.9 plays per game.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with worse passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased rush volume.
  • DeVonta Smith's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 80.8% to 76.3%.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™