DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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DeVonta Smith

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 16, 2025

Updated Dec 20, 2025 9:57 PM EST

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 61.5 (-114/-117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 56.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 61.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

DeVonta Smith has run a route on 98.3% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.
In this game, DeVonta Smith is forecasted by the projections to position himself in the 80th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 6.9 targets.
DeVonta Smith has put up significantly more air yards this year (88.0 per game) than he did last year (66.0 per game).
The Eagles O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
With an excellent 54.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (91st percentile) this year, DeVonta Smith has been as one of the top wide receivers in the game in the NFL.

Favors Under

A running game script is suggested by the Eagles being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
The projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.32 seconds per play.
DeVonta Smith's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 80.8% to 69.1%.
DeVonta Smith's 8.5 adjusted yards per target this year represents a remarkable drop-off in his pass-catching skills over last year's 9.7 figure.

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