DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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DeVonta Smith

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 48.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
DeVonta Smith has run a route on 93.9% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 95th percentile among WRs.
DeVonta Smith has posted a whopping 92.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among wideouts.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.
DeVonta Smith has been among the top wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 53.0 yards per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
DeVonta Smith has been among the worst possession receivers in the league, catching a measly 59.5% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 17th percentile among wideouts

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