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Devon Achane

Devon Achane Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 7

Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Devon Achane Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+100/-126).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +111 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.0% red zone pass rate.
  • De'Von Achane has been a big part of his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 14.8% this year, which ranks in the 87th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • In regards to air yards, De'Von Achane ranks in the lofty 85th percentile among RBs this year, accumulating a striking 2.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
  • De'Von Achane's 33.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 22.4.
  • With an outstanding ratio of 0.43 per game through the air (99th percentile), De'Von Achane places as one of the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL when it comes to RBs this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the model to call only 62.5 total plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Dolphins have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 49.8 plays per game.
  • The weather report calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
  • When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Miami Dolphins ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year.

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