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Devon Achane

Devon Achane Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Devon Achane Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-120/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
  • With an elite 20.4% Red Zone Target Rate (97th percentile) this year, De'Von Achane has been among the pass-game running backs with the most usage near the goal line in football.
  • In regards to air yards, De'Von Achane grades out in the lofty 92nd percentile among running backs this year, accruing a striking 3.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).
  • De'Von Achane's 33.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 22.4.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to pass on 57.5% of their opportunities: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 125.8 total plays called: the fewest out of all the games this week.
  • The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.4 plays per game.
  • In regards to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Miami Dolphins profiles as the worst in the league this year.
  • De'Von Achane's 74.6% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects an impressive decrease in his receiving ability over last season's 92.3% mark.

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