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Devon Achane

Devon Achane Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Devon Achane Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-140/+119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • De'Von Achane has been an integral part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 20.4% this year, which ranks in the 98th percentile among RBs.
  • De'Von Achane has put up a whopping 3.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among running backs. (This may not sound too impressive, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).
  • De'Von Achane's 33.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 22.4.
  • With an impressive ratio of 0.31 per game through the air (98th percentile), De'Von Achane ranks as one of the best receiving touchdown-scorers in the league among running backs this year.
  • This year, the deficient Jets defense has allowed a whopping 0.33 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing RBs: the 2nd-largest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 57.8% rate of passing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-least pass-focused team in the league has been the Miami Dolphins.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are predicted by the projection model to call only 63.6 total plays in this contest: the 6th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Dolphins have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 52.0 plays per game.
  • The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all passing game metrics across the board.
  • De'Von Achane's 74.5% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a remarkable regression in his pass-catching ability over last year's 92.3% rate.

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