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Devon Achane

Devon Achane Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Devon Achane Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-132/+123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -132.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a high 19.6% Red Zone Target Rate (97th percentile) this year, De'Von Achane rates as one of the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league.
  • De'Von Achane has accumulated a staggering 3.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not sound too impressive, but most RBs average negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).
  • De'Von Achane's 35.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 22.4.
  • De'Von Achane grades out in the 98th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an exceptional 0.33 per game.
  • The Saints pass defense has surrendered the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (90.6%) to running backs this year (90.6%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Dolphins are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a running game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to pass on 54.6% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Right now, the most sluggish paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
  • The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Saints, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a measly 28.6 per game) this year.

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