My Account Log Out
 
 
Devon Achane

Devon Achane Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Devon Achane Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-156/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -188 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -156.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (58.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Dolphins.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • With an impressive 17.1% Red Zone Target% (96th percentile) this year, De'Von Achane places as one of the pass-catching RBs with the most usage near the end zone in football.
  • De'Von Achane has posted a monstrous 4.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among running backs. (This might not seem like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
  • De'Von Achane's 35.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 22.4.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the model to run just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 51.7 per game on average).
  • The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
  • De'Von Achane's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 92.3% to 73.8%.
  • With an exceptional rate of 0.45 rushing touchdowns per game (88th percentile), De'Von Achane stands among the best rushing touchdown-scorers in the NFL this year.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™