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Devon Achane

Devon Achane Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Devon Achane Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-132/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +119 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +106.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins are a giant 8-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 61.5% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Right now, the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (59.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Miami Dolphins.
  • With a high 17.5% Red Zone Target Rate (96th percentile) this year, De'Von Achane ranks among the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume near the goal line in football.
  • De'Von Achane has put up a colossal 5.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not sound very overwhelming, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Dolphins to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Dolphins this year (only 52.4 per game on average).
  • Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.9 per game) this year.
  • When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year.
  • De'Von Achane's 71.5% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a noteable decrease in his receiving skills over last season's 92.3% rate.

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