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Devon Achane

Devon Achane Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 18

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Devon Achane Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 67.5 (-111/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 68.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 67.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 2nd-most run-focused team in the league (44.5% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
  • The projections expect De'Von Achane to accumulate 17.3 carries in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • After taking on 46.4% of his offense's carries last season, De'Von Achane has been called on more in the ground game this season, currently comprising 62.9%.
  • De'Von Achane has run for many more adjusted yards per game (68.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
  • De'Von Achane's 5.1 adjusted yards per carry this season reflects a remarkable improvement in his rushing talent over last season's 4.2 mark.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At a -10.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are massive underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
  • The model projects the Dolphins to call the 3rd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • The Miami Dolphins have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 51.8 plays per game.
  • This year, the fierce Patriots run defense has conceded a paltry 99.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 5th-best in the NFL.
  • As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, New England's group of safeties has been terrific this year, ranking as the best in football.

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