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Devon Achane

Devon Achane Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Carolina Panthers vs Miami Dolphins

Devon Achane Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-156/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -152 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

In this game, De'Von Achane is projected by the projection model to land in the 99th percentile among RBs with 6.3 targets.

De'Von Achane's 22.0% Target Rate this year represents a remarkable progression in his pass attack workload over last year's 15.3% mark.

With an exceptional 3.8 adjusted receptions per game (96th percentile) this year, De'Von Achane rates as one of the best RB receiving threats in football.

Since the start of last season, the poor Panthers pass defense has been gouged for a monstrous 87.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 8th-highest rate in football.

The Panthers linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 59.1% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL has been the Miami Dolphins.

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 59.1 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The 4th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (just 49.8 per game on average).

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-fewest in football.

When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Miami Dolphins profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.

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