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Devon Achane

Devon Achane Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Devon Achane Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 8th-most pass-centric team in football (62.1% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Dolphins.

This week, De'Von Achane is anticipated by the model to rank in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs with 6.9 targets.

De'Von Achane's 24.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 99th percentile for RBs.

De'Von Achane ranks as one of the top RB receiving threats this year, averaging an impressive 4.5 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 99th percentile.

The Jets safeties profile as the worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Jets, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.4 per game) since the start of last season.

In regards to protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

De'Von Achane's 74.4% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a material decrease in his pass-catching talent over last year's 92.3% figure.

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