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Devon Achane Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Devon Achane Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-148/+124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -152 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -148.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a giant 8-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 61.5% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.

In this week's game, De'Von Achane is forecasted by the predictive model to land in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs with 7.7 targets.

De'Von Achane has been a more integral piece of his team's passing game this season (22.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (15.3%).

De'Von Achane ranks as one of the leading pass-game RBs this year, averaging an impressive 3.9 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Dolphins this year (only 52.4 per game on average).

Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.9 per game) this year.

When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year.

De'Von Achane's 71.5% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a noteable decrease in his receiving skills over last season's 92.3% rate.

More Devon Achane Player Props

Devon Achane ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Devon Achane Receptions
Player Prop Week 10