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Devon Achane

Devon Achane Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Devon Achane Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (+107/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -109.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 8th-most pass-centric team in football (62.1% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Dolphins.

This week, De'Von Achane is anticipated by the model to rank in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs with 6.9 targets.

De'Von Achane's 24.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 99th percentile for RBs.

With a stellar 35.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (97th percentile) this year, De'Von Achane rates as one of the best pass-game RBs in the league.

The Jets safeties profile as the worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Jets, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.4 per game) since the start of last season.

When it comes to air yards, De'Von Achane grades out in the paltry 14th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accruing just -2.0 per game.

In regards to protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

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