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Devon Achane

Devon Achane Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Devon Achane Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-111/-111).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -10.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are massive underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
  • De'Von Achane has been used more as a potential target this season (73.1% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (61.2%).
  • The leading projections forecast De'Von Achane to total 6.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
  • When it comes to air yards, De'Von Achane ranks in the lofty 92nd percentile among RBs this year, accruing an impressive 3.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
  • The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (85%) versus RBs this year (85.0%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the present time, the 2nd-least pass-centric offense in the league (55.5% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Dolphins.
  • The model projects the Dolphins to call the 3rd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • The Miami Dolphins have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 51.8 plays per game.
  • When it comes to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Miami Dolphins profiles as the worst in the NFL this year.
  • De'Von Achane's 27.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season reflects a material decrease in his pass-catching ability over last season's 36.0 rate.

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