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Devon Achane

Devon Achane Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Devon Achane Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -118.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
  • De'Von Achane has been used more as a potential target this year (73.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (61.2%).
  • In this game, De'Von Achane is predicted by the projection model to land in the 95th percentile among RBs with 5.8 targets.
  • In regards to air yards, De'Von Achane ranks in the towering 94th percentile among running backs this year, accumulating a superb 4.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more impressive than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (47.0) to RBs this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 54.9% of their chances: the 10th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have only 124.6 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest among all games this week.
  • The 2nd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a measly 51.9 per game on average).
  • When talking about pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Dolphins ranks as the worst in the league this year.
  • De'Von Achane's 27.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year illustrates a material decrease in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 36.0 rate.

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