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Devon Achane

Devon Achane Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Devon Achane Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 37.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -118.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • In this contest, De'Von Achane is anticipated by our trusted projection set to land in the 100th percentile among running backs with 7.7 targets.
  • De'Von Achane's 22.5% Target Share this year represents a remarkable growth in his air attack volume over last year's 15.3% mark.
  • De'Von Achane has posted a monstrous 4.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among running backs. (This might not seem like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
  • The Washington Commanders defense has been torched for the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (39.0) to running backs this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Dolphins have been the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.5% pass rate.
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the model to run just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 51.7 per game on average).
  • The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
  • De'Von Achane's 30.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season marks a substantial diminishment in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 35.0 mark.

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