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Devon Achane

Devon Achane Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Devon Achane Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins are a giant 8-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 61.5% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • In this week's game, De'Von Achane is forecasted by the predictive model to land in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs with 7.7 targets.
  • De'Von Achane has been a more integral piece of his team's passing game this season (22.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (15.3%).
  • De'Von Achane has put up a colossal 5.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not sound very overwhelming, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Dolphins to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Dolphins this year (only 52.4 per game on average).
  • Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.9 per game) this year.
  • When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year.
  • De'Von Achane's 26.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year shows a meaningful drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last year's 35.0 mark.

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