Devon Achane Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Devon Achane

NFL · Player Props

Devon Achane

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Devon Achane Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-142/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.2% pass rate.
The predictive model expects Devon Achane to earn 3.6 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
Devon Achane has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in football when it comes to RBs, averaging a fantastic 7.39 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 88th percentile.
The Giants safeties rank as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a giant 13-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins offense to be the 6th-worst paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.12 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.2 per game) this year.
This year, the stout Giants defense has allowed a mere 17.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 4th-fewest in football.
The Giants pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (74.1%) versus RBs since the start of last season (74.1%).

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