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Devin Singletary

Devin Singletary Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Devin Singletary Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 54.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 51.5 @ -131.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.

Devin Singletary has grinded out 53.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest marks in the NFL among RBs (77th percentile).

Devin Singletary's running efficiency (4.70 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (76th percentile among running backs).

The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 10th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Devin Singletary has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this year, playing on 71.9% of snaps compared to just 57.9% last year.

Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 105 per game) versus the New England Patriots defense this year.

The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 4th-best safety corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

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