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Devin Singletary

Devin Singletary Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 3

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Devin Singletary Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+180/-260).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -235 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -260.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

The Buffalo Bills have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 65.4 plays per game.

Devin Singletary has rushed for 0.33 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (81st percentile).

The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-least run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 37.0% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be a less important option in his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (29.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (42.1% in games he has played).

The Miami Dolphins defensive ends rank as the 4th-best collection of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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