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Devin Duvernay

Devin Duvernay Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Devin Duvernay Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-250/+185).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -225 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +185.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Bears to call the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • The Bears have run the most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 61.9 plays per game.
  • The Green Bay Packers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (36.1 per game) this year.
  • The Bears offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • The Green Bay Packers pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (66.9%) versus wide receivers this year (66.9%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bears to pass on 54.0% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) typically correlate with lessened passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased rush volume.
  • Devin Duvernay has been less involved as a potential target this season (11.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (29.9%).
  • Devin Duvernay has been one of the bottom pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a mere 1.1 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 17th percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Green Bay's safety corps has been very good this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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