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Devin Duvernay Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-120).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -120.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The model projects the Bears to call the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.The Bears have run the most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 61.9 plays per game.The Green Bay Packers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (36.1 per game) this year.After accruing 14.0 air yards per game last year, Devin Duvernay has undergone big improvement this year, currently pacing 19.0 per game.The Bears offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all pass game metrics across the board.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bears to pass on 54.0% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) typically correlate with lessened passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased rush volume.Devin Duvernay has been less involved as a potential target this season (11.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (29.9%).With a poor 11.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (12th percentile) since the start of last season, Devin Duvernay has been among the weakest pass-catching WRs in the NFL.As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Green Bay's safety corps has been very good this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
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