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Devin Duvernay

Devin Duvernay Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 4

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills

Devin Duvernay Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+385/-798).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -670 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -798.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.

The Baltimore Ravens offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Devin Duvernay has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL, hauling in a terrific 82.9% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile among WRs.

The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Baltimore Ravens have utilized play action on 29.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-most in football), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 5th-worst paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.87 seconds per snap.

The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the NFL.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (61.1%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (61.1%).

The Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the least passing touchdowns in football to wide receivers: 0.40 per game since the start of last season.

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