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Deven Thompkins

Deven Thompkins Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Deven Thompkins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+2000/-20000).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -25000 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -20000.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Falcons are enormous underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.7 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
  • In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 61.4% of their chances: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 9th-most run-focused offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 47.7% red zone run rate.
  • Deven Thompkins has been been lightly used his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks in the 0th percentile among WRs.
  • In regards to air yards, Deven Thompkins ranks in just the 1st percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, accruing just 0.0 per game.
  • Deven Thompkins rates in just the 19th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) with a subpar 3.6 mark since the start of last season.

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