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Deven Thompkins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1050/-2800).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -2500 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2800.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Falcons, who are -4.5-point underdogs.The model projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.25 seconds per play.The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Falcons grades out as the 4th-best in football this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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At the present time, the least pass-heavy offense in football (55.3% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Falcons.Deven Thompkins has been not been very involved his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 2.1% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 21st percentile among WRs.In regards to air yards, Deven Thompkins grades out in just the 1st percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, accruing just 0.0 per game.Deven Thompkins's 4.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the worst in football: 21st percentile for wideouts.Deven Thompkins ranks in the 1st percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a measly 0.00 per game.
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