Deven Thompkins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Deven Thompkins

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 2:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Deven Thompkins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.6 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in the NFL.
Deven Thompkins has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (39.6% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (21.4%).
In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Buccaneers profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year.
This year, the poor Lions defense has surrendered a massive 181.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 9th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 6.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The projections expect the Buccaneers as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 56.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are forecasted by the projection model to call only 62.9 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 10th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (a lowly 56.2 per game on average).
This year, the formidable Detroit Lions pass defense has yielded the least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wideouts: a mere 2.6 YAC.