DeVante Parker Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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DeVante Parker

NFL · Player Props

DeVante Parker

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

DeVante Parker Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+140/-170).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New England Patriots will be rolling out backup QB Brian Hoyer this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Patriots are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects DeVante Parker to accumulate 7.5 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects DeVante Parker to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing attack this week (23.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.9% in games he has played).
DeVante Parker has been among the best pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 3.9 receptions per game while ranking in the 79th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.6 plays per game.
DeVante Parker's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 55.9% to 44.1%.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (60.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (60.8%).

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