Desmond Ridder TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Desmond Ridder

NFL · Player Props

Desmond Ridder

QB · Atlanta Falcons

TD Passes

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 18, 2023

Updated Jan 7, 2024 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

Desmond Ridder TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-180/+145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -175 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are expected by the projection model to call 70.0 offensive plays in this game: the highest number among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
When it comes to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to pass on 54.6% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Right now, the 2nd-least pass-focused team in the NFL near the goal line (50.2% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Falcons.
This year, the daunting Saints defense has yielded a meager 63.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-best rate in football.
The New Orleans Saints linebackers rank as the 5th-best LB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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