Deshaun Watson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Deshaun Watson

NFL · Player Props

Deshaun Watson

QB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Deshaun Watson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns to be the 7th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 41.9% run rate.
The predictive model expects the Browns to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 26.81 seconds per play.
The projections expect Deshaun Watson to accumulate 4.3 carries in this week's game, on average: the 8th-most among all QBs.
In regards to run-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all ground game statistics), the O-line of the Cleveland Browns ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL last year.

Favors Under

This game's line implies a passing game script for the Browns, who are -6-point underdogs.
Deshaun Watson has rushed for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (20.0) this year than he did last year (29.0).
Deshaun Watson's 5.57 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season marks a substantial decrease in his rushing talent over last season's 6.38 rate.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 88.0 per game) versus the Ravens defense this year.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Baltimore's group of DTs has been outstanding this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

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