Deshaun Watson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

NFL · Player Props

Deshaun Watson

QB · Cleveland Browns

Passing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Cleveland Browns · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 9:01 PM EST

Analysis

Deshaun Watson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 215.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 219.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 215.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 3rd-fastest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.54 seconds before getting pressured (8th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Deshaun Watson to attempt 30.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 5th-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the 10th-least yards in the league (just 218.0 per game) versus the Washington Commanders defense this year.
The Washington Commanders safeties rank as the best group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.