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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Derrick Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-190/+174).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -166 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -190.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Baltimore Ravens will be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • The model projects Derrick Henry to be a much bigger part of his team's passing attack near the end zone in this week's contest (5.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
  • As it relates to air yards, Derrick Henry ranks in the lofty 85th percentile among running backs this year, averaging an astounding 2.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year (77.5% Adjusted Completion%).
  • As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Miami's unit has been very good this year, profiling as the 8th-best in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a massive favorite in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan.
  • The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 5th-most run-focused offense in the league near the goal line (48.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Ravens.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see just 120.9 offensive plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • The 3rd-fewest plays in football have been called by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a lowly 50.1 per game on average).

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