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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Derrick Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-110/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +102 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -113.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Baltimore Ravens will be rolling out backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • The Ravens are a big 7-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
  • The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Rams defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (36.0 per game) this year.
  • When talking about air yards, Derrick Henry ranks in the lofty 78th percentile among running backs this year, accumulating a massive 1.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the least pass-focused offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 56.4% pass rate.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 44.8 plays per game.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being projected in this game) generally mean lessened passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and higher run volume.
  • While Derrick Henry has been responsible for 50.0% of his team's red zone carries in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Baltimore's running game near the goal line in this week's contest at 60.7%.
  • With a middling 0.0% Red Zone Target Rate (1st percentile) this year, Derrick Henry has been as one of the pass-catching running backs with the least usage near the end zone in the league.

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