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Derrick Henry Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans

Derrick Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-134/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -134.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Ravens will be forced to use backup quarterback Cooper Rush this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

As it relates to air yards, Derrick Henry ranks in the towering 79th percentile among RBs this year, totaling a staggering 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).

With an excellent 93.2% Adjusted Catch Rate (76th percentile) since the start of last season, Derrick Henry ranks as one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL among running backs.

The Houston Texans safeties profile as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 5th-most run-centric team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 48.2% red zone run rate.

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are projected by the model to run just 63.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The Ravens have run the fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 47.0 plays per game.

While Derrick Henry has garnered 50.0% of his offense's red zone rush attempts in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Baltimore's run game near the end zone this week at 72.2%.

Derrick Henry has not scored a TD through the air this year.

More Derrick Henry Player Props

Derrick Henry TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 5

Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans

Derrick Henry Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5