|
|
Derrick Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-146/+140).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -146.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
|
|
The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football.Derrick Henry has notched a massive 1.0 air yards per game this year: 78th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This might not seem like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).Opposing teams have run for the 3rd-fewest touchdowns in the league (0.62 per game) against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.When it comes to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Pittsburgh's group of DEs has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
|
|
At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Ravens are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to pass on 60.3% of their chances: the 9th-highest frequency on the slate this week.At the present time, the 6th-most run-heavy offense in football in the red zone (49.5% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Ravens.The Ravens offense has played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 30.46 seconds per snap.Derrick Henry has received 57.4% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
