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Derrick Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+113/-114).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -114.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Ravens will be forced to start backup quarterback Tyler Huntley in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.The Packers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (36.6 per game) this year.In regards to air yards, Derrick Henry ranks in the lofty 79th percentile among RBs this year, averaging a colossal 1.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).The opposing side have rushed for the 3rd-fewest TDs in the NFL (0.67 per game) versus the Packers defense this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to pass on 49.3% of their opportunities: the lowest clip on the slate this week.At the present time, the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (51.4% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Ravens.Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to see just 121.1 plays on offense called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.The Ravens have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 51.7 plays per game.Derrick Henry has been given 54.2% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
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