Derrick Henry Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Touchdowns

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots · Week 16, 2025

Updated Dec 22, 2025 1:22 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-168/+138).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -168.

Key Factors

Favors Over

When it comes to air yards, Derrick Henry ranks in the towering 81st percentile among RBs this year, totaling a colossal 1.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).
This year, the shaky Patriots defense has conceded a massive 73.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-worst rate in football.
This year, the daunting Patriots run defense has allowed a paltry 0.50 rushing TDs per game to the opposing side: the 2nd-best rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script.
The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Ravens to be the 7th-most run-oriented offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 47.7% red zone run rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have just 127.0 total plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Baltimore Ravens have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 51.9 plays per game.

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