My Account Log Out
 
 
Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Derrick Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-200/+190).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -200 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -200.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see 129.7 total plays run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
  • When talking about air yards, Derrick Henry grades out in the lofty 78th percentile among running backs this year, accruing an impressive 1.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more impressive than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).
  • The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has been gouged for the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (87%) versus running backs this year (87.0%).
  • This year, the shaky Cincinnati Bengals defense has surrendered a monstrous 0.55 TDs through the air per game to opposing running backs: the highest rate in football.
  • When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Cincinnati's group of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Ravens are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • The predictive model expects the Ravens as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 50.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the 5th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 48.5% red zone run rate.
  • The 2nd-fewest plays in football have been called by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a measly 52.0 per game on average).
  • Among all running backs, Derrick Henry ranks in the 88th percentile for red zone rush attempts this year, comprising 53.7% of the volume in his team's ground game near the end zone.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™