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Derrick Henry Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets

Derrick Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-200/+162).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -205 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -200.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

As it relates to air yards, Derrick Henry grades out in the towering 78th percentile among running backs this year, totaling a striking 1.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).

The New York Jets defense has surrendered the 2nd-most receiving touchdowns in the league to running backs: 0.40 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme running game script is implied by the Ravens being a heavy 14-point favorite in this week's contest.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to pass on 48.9% of their plays: the lowest rate among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 6th-most run-heavy team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 48.3% red zone run rate.

The Baltimore Ravens have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 51.8 plays per game.

Among all RBs, Derrick Henry grades out in the 86th percentile for red zone carries this year, accounting for 52.6% of the volume in his team's rushing attack near the end zone.

More Derrick Henry Player Props

Derrick Henry TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 12

Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets

Derrick Henry Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12