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Derrick Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-150/+134).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -150.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Ravens are predicted by the model to run 66.4 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.Derrick Henry has accrued a staggering 2.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile among RBs. (This may not sound like very many, but most RBs average negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their typical game plan.Right now, the 5th-most run-centric offense in football near the goal line (47.7% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Baltimore Ravens.The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Ravens this year (a lowly 50.1 per game on average).Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Minnesota Vikings, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 28.6 per game) this year.Derrick Henry has earned 55.0% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
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