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Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 87.5 (-113/+102).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 85.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 87.5 @ -113.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Our trusted projections expect the Ravens to be the most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 50.6% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.The model projects Derrick Henry to notch 19.5 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among RBs.Derrick Henry has earned 64.3% of his offense's run game usage this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.This year, the fierce Chicago Bears run defense has yielded a mere 5.28 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing rushing attacks: the 30th-lowest rate in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Baltimore Ravens will be rolling with backup quarterback Tyler Huntley in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to have 132.7 total plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.The fewest plays in the league have been run by the Ravens this year (just 49.2 per game on average).Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower ground volume.Derrick Henry has rushed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (65.0) this season than he did last season (118.0).
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