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Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 84.5 (-140/+105).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 78.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 84.5 @ -140.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Ravens are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a running game script.The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 7th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 47.2% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.Our trusted projections expect Derrick Henry to notch 18.0 carries in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs.Among all running backs, Derrick Henry grades out in the 90th percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 60.0% of the workload in his offense's running game.Derrick Henry has generated 115.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the league when it comes to running backs (100th percentile).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The Ravens have run the fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.3 plays per game.The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may decline.Since the start of last season, the daunting Detroit Lions run defense has yielded a meager 97.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Detroit's unit has been one of the most skilled since the start of last season, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.
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