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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 74.5 (-105/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 74.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 74.5 @ -128.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a huge favorite this week, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
  • Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to run on 51.1% of their chances: the greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see 132.7 offensive plays called: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.
  • The weather report calls for 24-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • The leading projections forecast Derrick Henry to total 20.9 rush attempts this week, on balance, ranking him in the 97th percentile when it comes to running backs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a lowly 51.6 per game on average).
  • Derrick Henry's 74.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season marks a material decline in his rushing proficiency over last season's 118.0 figure.
  • Derrick Henry's 5.0 adjusted yards per carry this season shows a significant decrease in his running ability over last season's 6.2 mark.
  • This year, the weak Cleveland Browns run defense has allowed a monstrous 3.74 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition's run game: the 28th-biggest rate in football.
  • The Browns defensive ends grade out as the best group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

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